The playoffs are all about goalies. It’s almost a truism, but there are ways to deal with a really good goalie – the most obvious is to counter with a hot goalie of your own. Jack Campbell has been good for the Leafs, but honestly he hasn’t been at the level of Carey Price.
Price has performed well in the league average this regular season in all situations. His goals recorded above expectations range from -1.5 to Moneypuck to a much less friendly -8.11 on Hockey in evolution. At five on five, Price was 0.71 goals saved above expectations, almost over the league’s expected average, on Evolving Hockey, and 3.8 goals on Moneypuck. Over a season, this difference is an argument about the shade of his room.
The playoffs were a very different story, and that’s to be expected. Mike Smith had a great regular season, was arguably as good as Connor Hellebuyck, just in under minutes, and he didn’t bring that same game to the first round sweep where Hellebuyck was the single most important factor in the game. result.
The harsh reality of playoff hockey is that a goaltender’s results in a four to seven game streak should never be anything other than somewhere within that goaltender’s normal range. This is why really good goalies with careers as top beginners tend to have narrower payouts than substitutes who on any given day may outperform them, but not over a career. You never know what you’re going to get, no matter how many campfire myths have been told around the internet about the performance of playoff clutches.
The Leafs get a very good Carey Price. And they win anyway.
Jack Campbell helps, of course. He is ninth of the above recorded goals expected every 60 minutes using Moneypuck’s model. Spencer Knight’s first insanely good game is the first at 2.3. Hellebuyck is 1.5, the price is 1.4, Vasilevskiy is 1.1, the astonishing Craig Anderson has 1.0 in two games, Marc-Andre Fleury is 0.9, Tuukka Rask is 0.8, Ilya Sorokin is 0.6 and Campbell is seated at. 5.
It has also been Campbell’s season overall – very good, better than average, but outside the rarefied air of top goalies once those early super-hitting games have receded in the past.
The only trick that can avoid being guarded by Carey Price is the Leafs’ front row, which leads Moneypuck’s offensive line list by goals expected for 60 minutes. They’re right in front of Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak, and we all know how deadly they are. Ours is better this year so far.
True to Moneypuck and advancing to the team standings in the playoffs, Toronto is second only to Colorado in goal percentage expected at 59.5 to 61.8. Montreal, which was supposed to be the power of possession, is at 40.5.
So far in all three of their playoff games, the Leafs have underperformed expected goals or, in other words, have a low shooting percentage. Their five-on-five performances looked like this:
- Game 1 – 1.39 planned against 1 real
- Match 2 – 2.79 expected vs 2 real
- Match 3 – 2.53 expected against 2 real
Their power play shot was also a bit below expectations. Toronto has do not been on a shooting warmer this season, but they performed at the expected five-on-five. The underlying performance is there in the offensive zone of this series and in the dominant control of the puck.
This series has nothing to do with the Columbus series last summer in the bubble. In those games, the Leafs did not perform well offensively, shot from very poor places and hardly ever scored.
It’s not that:
The only trick to avoid being guarded is the red drop of death. Fortunately, the Leafs are really good at creating this.