Open Interest – A Camet Tue, 22 Nov 2022 05:14:46 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Open Interest – A Camet 32 32 CME’s Vicioso says regulated market is crypto differentiator Tue, 22 Nov 2022 05:14:46 +0000

Giovanni Vicioso, global head of cryptocurrency products at CME Group, said a differentiator for the company is that it is a regulated market offering regulated products that provide transparency and price discovery, so that clients can effectively transfer risk.

Giovanni Vicioso, CME Group

Vicioso told Markets Media: “We are one of the largest derivatives exchanges in the world with a proven track record of over 175 years, and that sets us apart from unregulated platforms, some of which have only been around for less than a decade. ‘a decade.”

On November 11, Bahamian-regulated crypto exchange FTX Group filed for bankruptcy protection. In 2021, FTX purchased LedgerX, a CFTC-regulated designated contracts marketplace, swap execution facility and derivatives clearing organization, and rebranded the business as FTX US Derivatives, although that business would not was not included in the Chapter 11 filing.

FTX had filed an application with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to introduce a no-broker clearing model for crypto derivatives. Terrence Duffy, President and CEO of CME Group, had opposed the proposal and said it would represent a radical change in the market structure of the derivatives industry and would set a precedent with negative implications. far-reaching for the safety and soundness of US financial markets. markets.

“CME Group is a clearinghouse so we can guarantee the clearing and settlement of trades on our exchange and you will never hear us use the term automatic liquidation or clawback,” Vicioso said.

Volume growth

Following FTX’s collapse, CME saw a lot of participation as clients worked to manage their risk amid the volatility according to Vicioso. “There were records in bitcoin futures and ether futures and options, as well as an overall daily record of 207,000 complex crypto contracts,” he added.

On November 8, the entire crypto suite had a record trading volume of 207,205 contracts.

Vicioso continued that CME’s suite of cryptocurrency products has continued to see steady growth in volume and open interest despite the challenging backdrop the broader cryptocurrency market has faced in recent months. In addition, institutional participation increased by more than 30% in large bitcoin futures open interest holders in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2021.

“This is particularly noteworthy because these types of entities hold 25 or more of our bitcoin contracts, which equates to at least 125 bitcoins, worth approximately $2 million at current market prices,” he said. -he declares. “Our transparent rules and regulations, operational controls, and very robust liquidity continue to allow clients to protect themselves against fluctuations in bitcoin and ether prices.”

Clients already trading CME Group products can easily add bitcoin futures or ether futures, so it’s more of a plug and play into their existing strategies.

Vicioso has had a baptism of fire since being appointed to his current role in October. He joined CME Group in 2012 as Senior Director of Equity Products, where he began his involvement in the cryptocurrency industry while also working in alternative investments.

“The latter allowed me to explore the potential of futures and index products in new assets, including commodities, real estate, water and cryptocurrencies,” he added. .

The group introduced the CME CF Bitcoin Benchmark in November 2016 and as client demand grew for a cash-settled futures product, and CME bitcoin futures in December 2017. He described bitcoin futures as a huge success with a compound annual growth rate of around 70% and an average daily volume of over 13,500 contracts.

Institutions are turning to bitcoin first, and as they become comfortable, they are quickly looking to migrate to ether. CME introduced an ether benchmark in 2018, followed by futures in February 2021.

“The number of large open interest holders, who hold at least 25 ether futures, has grown to 50 in less than a year, while bitcoin futures have taken over two years” , added Vicioso. “So institutions adapt more quickly.”

When the price of cryptocurrencies rose last year, CME introduced micro-contracts which helped the exchange capture the interest of retailers. However, institutions also use micro-contracts to test new strategies or refine their risk exposure and management needs.

Some clients would like to pay margin for crypto futures in crypto. Vicioso said, “It’s something we’re exploring but is still in the early stages of development and will take some time.”

In addition to launching tradable products, CME also introduced 14 additional benchmark rates and real-time indices this year.

“Our suite of non-tradable benchmark rates provides reliable price discovery on a regulated venue in a fragmented market that builds comfort among market participants for tradable products,” Vicioso added.

Banks are also clearing more CME crypto products and starting to trade the contracts to hedge OTC trades that serve their hedge fund clients.

“We will continue to build our dominance in bitcoin and ether contracts where we have market leading volumes and open interest and we have introduced non-tradable benchmarks including tradable futures and options. in bitcoin and ether, every month since December. last year,” he said. “We will continue this pace of innovation and product introductions.”

Almost half, between 40% and 45% of CME’s crypto volume comes from outside the North American region. The crypto trades 24 hours a day and CME is open from 6 p.m. ET Sunday evening to 5 p.m. Friday evening ET with a one-hour maintenance window daily between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m.

CME also introduced benchmark rates for the US dollar price of bitcoin and ether at 4 p.m. New York time in addition to London time. One mechanism, known as Basis Trade at Index Close (BTIC), allows market participants to trade bitcoin and ether futures against either of these benchmark rates.

Vicioso added that, as always, additional futures will be driven by customer demand, but also by greater regulatory clarity.

“We have single coin indices, but there is interest in a basket of cryptocurrencies, so it’s on our radar,” he said.

]]> Tech View: Can Nifty reach new heights this week? Sun, 13 Nov 2022 04:25:28 +0000

Thanks to Friday’s rally, which was supported by a significant rise in global markets, Nifty ends another week with respectable gains. Weaker-than-expected US inflation data caused US bond yields and the dollar index to drop dramatically, fueling a strong rally in global equity markets. The Nifty ends at a new 52-week high and Bank Nifty ends at a new all-time high, but the broader market underperformed last week; in fact, the midcap and smallcap indices both recorded losses.

Amid a rebound in international markets, the Nifty is approaching its all-time high; its previous all-time high was 18,604 on October 21. Indian stock markets are constantly receiving funding from FIIs, and Friday marked their 11th consecutive trading session of buying. As US bond yields and the dollar index fall, they could help the market hit a new high. Last week, the Rupee also saw notable strength. Sentiment will continue to be fueled by the movement of global markets. The market will keep an eye on our domestic inflation statistics.

Technically, Nifty is breaking out of a widening wedge formation and closed at important resistance at 18350. If it manages to hold above this level, then we can anticipate a rise towards the 18500, 18600 levels. and 18800. On the downside, 18300 is strong support and the 18100-18000 area will function as an area of ​​immediate demand.

Bank Nifty is currently trading above the psychological threshold of 42,000 and at an all-time high. Bank Nifty’s next logical target is around 43000. In contrast, 41750 acts as instant support, and the 41000-4800 range is a crucial demand area.

If we look at the derivative data, the put call ratio sits at 1.22 and the FII’s long exposure to index futures is 62%, indicating a bullish tilt in the market. According to the open interest distribution chart, there are no substantial hurdles up to 19000, while 18300 and 18000 serve as important support levels.

Pravesh Gour is a senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd.

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Nasdaq announces open short interest positions at the end of the month Wed, 09 Nov 2022 21:35:27 +0000

NEW YORK, Nov. 09, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — At the end of the settlement date of October 31, 2022, short interest on 3,440 Nasdaq Global MarketSM securities totaled 10,444,123,033 shares versus 10,553,498,844 shares in 3,446 reported global market issues for the previous settlement date of October 14, 2022. Short interest at the end of October represents average daily volume Nasdaq Global Market shares of 2.81 days for the reporting period, compared to 2.96 days for the prior reporting period.

Short interest on 2,065 securities on the Nasdaq Capital MarketSM totaled 2,075,287,895 shares at the end of the settlement-delivery date of October 31, 2022 compared to 2,005,072,706 shares in 2,080 securities for the previous financial year. This represents an average daily volume of 1.77 days; the figure for the previous reference period was 2.21.

In summary, short interest for all 5,505 Nasdaq® securities amounted to 12,519,410,928 shares on the settlement date of October 31, 2022, compared to 5,526 issues and 12,558,571,550 shares at the end of the previous financial year. This is an average daily volume of 2.56 days, compared to an average of 2.81 days for the previous reporting period.

The reported short open interest positions for each Nasdaq security reflect the total number of shares sold short by all brokers/dealers, regardless of their exchange affiliations. A short sale generally means the sale of a security that the seller does not own or any sale consummated by the delivery of a security borrowed by or on behalf of the seller.

For more information on Nasdaq Short Interest Positions, including publication dates, visit or

About Nasdaq:
Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) is a global technology company serving capital markets and other industries. Our diverse offering of data, analytics, software and services enables clients to optimize and execute their business vision with confidence. To learn more about the company, technology solutions and career opportunities, visit us on LinkedIn, on Twitter @Nasdaq or at

Media Contact:
Camille Stafford


A photo accompanying this announcement is available at

]]> European stocks open at the close, data, earnings and market movements Mon, 07 Nov 2022 14:50:00 +0000

European markets were slightly higher on Monday as investors braced for a busy week in US politics, with the midterm congressional elections, as well as the latest consumer inflation report.

The Stoxx 600 The index added 0.2% in afternoon trading after a busy week for markets last week as central banks continued aggressive monetary tightening in a bid to contain inflation.

Basic resources led the gains, gaining 1.4%, while healthcare stocks fell 0.5% by mid-afternoon.

The Bank of England implemented a 75 basis point interest rate hike on Thursday, but warned the UK economy was facing its longest recession on record, and the US Federal Reserve also opted to an increase of 75 basis points on Wednesday.

Overnight Monday-Monday, Hong Kong stocks led the gains in the Asia-Pacific region as trade data from China came in well below expectations, marking the first annual drop in exports since May 2020.

U.S. stocks, meanwhile, were mixed in early trades as investors looked ahead to Tuesday’s midterm elections, which will determine which party controls Congress and could affect the direction of future spending.

Democrats currently control the House and have a majority in the Senate. A Republican sweep could signal greater support for oil and gas companies.

On the economic front, investors expect Thursday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index report to provide some insight into the Federal Reserve’s efforts to crush inflation. A hot inflation report could signal to investors that a pivot from higher interest rates, for longer, may be further away than expected.

– CNBC’s Sarah Min contributed to this report.

CPO futures expected to trade lower next week Sat, 05 Nov 2022 02:09:00 +0000

KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are expected to trade with a downward bias next week as concerns over production and high inventories will weigh on sentiment. investors, said a trader.

Interband Group of Companies senior palm oil trader Jim Teh said the market is likely to see some profit-taking next week after a previous week’s rally climbing around 11% per week, following gains rival edible oils and on the back of a weakening ringgit against the US dollar.

He said the October harvest report is likely to be bearish as production is expected to rise further in the month, leading to higher Malaysian palm oil stocks in October.

On the production front, UOB Kay Hian had estimated Malaysia’s palm oil production in October to be 2-6% higher than September, while exports were between 1.43 and 1. 48 million tons.

“CPO prices are expected to trade between RM3,400 and 3,500 per tonne,” he told Bernama.

Meanwhile, Singapore-based owner and co-founder of Palm Oil Analytics, Dr. Sathia Varqa, said next week’s trading will focus on October harvest data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). ) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in November for clues about the direction of the market.

“Most bearish factors are priced in. Traders will watch for surprises in the data,” he added.

In the past week, CPO futures rallied on Russia’s withdrawal from the Ukraine Grain Corridor deal, which caused a bullish spike in the CPO futures contract. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil, a rise in crude oil prices as well as a weakening of the ringgit against the US dollar. .

On a weekly basis, CPO futures for the spot month of November 2022 rose RM356 to RM4,182 per tonne, December 2022 gained RM347 to RM4,274 per tonne and January 2023 was RM378 higher. at RM4,367 per ton.

February 2023 increased by RM386 to RM4,409 per ton, March 2023 jumped by RM380 to RM4,402 per ton and April 2023 advanced from RM378 to RM4,370 per ton.

Total weekly volume rose to 347,343 lots from 320,719 lots the previous week, while open interest narrowed to 199,305 lots from 202,988 contracts at the end of last week.

The CPO physical price for October South added RM300 to RM4,200 per ton. – Bernama

European markets open at close, investors focus on next Fed move Wed, 02 Nov 2022 14:33:00 +0000

US stocks open lower ahead of Fed meeting

US stocks fell on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.3% in early trades, while the S&P 500 was down 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite was also 0.45% lower.

The Fed is expected to announce a 0.75 percentage point rate hike after its policy meeting on Wednesday.

— Karen Gilchrist

Stocks in motion: Maersk down 7%, Vestas up 7%

Danish hearing care company Demant fell more than 12% in the early afternoon to the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after its preliminary third-quarter earnings report.

Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping company, saw its shares tumble more than 7% after posting record third-quarter profits due to high ocean freight rates, but noted a slowdown in demand.

Leading the European blue chip index, Vesta Shares jumped more than 7% after the Danish wind company’s earnings call helped ease market concerns over its earlier report.

-Elliot Smith

Spanish manufacturing industry falls sharply in October

Spanish factory activity contracted sharply in October, its fourth straight month of contraction, as high inflation sent output and new orders plunging.

The S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) fell to 44.7, its lowest level since May 2020, from 49.0 in September. Any reading below 50 represents a contraction.

-Elliot Smith

World’s largest container shipping company Maersk, a global trade barometer, warns of ‘dark clouds on the horizon’

Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping company, posted record third-quarter profits on Wednesday on strong ocean freight rates, but noted slowing demand.

The Danish giant, widely regarded as a barometer of global trade, reported earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $10.9 billion for the quarter, above analyst consensus projections of 9 .8 billion and up about 60% from the same period a year ago.

CEO Søren Skou said this year’s “outstanding results” were due to a continued increase in ocean freight rates, but said it was clear these had peaked and warned of “dark clouds on the horizon”.

Read the full story here.

-Elliot Smith

Stocks on the move: Straumann up 4%, Demant down 11%

Corporate earnings remain a key driver of individual stock price developments in Europe.

Danish Hearing Care Society Dismantling fell more than 11% in early trade to the Stoxx 600 low after its preliminary third-quarter earnings report.

At the top of the index, the Swiss dental equipment manufacturer Straumann gained 4% after its quarterly results.

Bank of England plans biggest rate hike in 33 years, but economists expect dovish tilt

The Bank of England is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points on Thursday, its biggest hike since 1989.

Vuk Valcic | SOPA Images | Light flare | Getty Images

Oil futures rise after industry report on falling US crude inventories

Oil futures prices rose on Wednesday after industry reports showed a drop in U.S. crude inventories over the past week, Reuters reported, citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.

Brent futures gained $1.31, or 1.46%, to settle at $95.87 a barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate rose 1.28% to $89.67 a barrel.

— Lee Ying Shan

CNBC Pro: Buy this automaker to meet massive pent-up demand in the U.S., fund manager says

According to fund manager Steven Glass, demand for cars is huge in the United States and China.

He named an auto stock to cash in, which he said has a “very well managed” balance sheet and a 20-year low price-earnings ratio.

Pro subscribers can learn more here.

— Zavier Ong

A Fed pivot is a long way off, says New York Life’s Goodwin

Investors might be a little too excited about potential changes to the Federal Reserve, according to Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments.

Goodwin said in a note that she expected the Fed to hike 0.75 percentage points on Wednesday and half a point in December, but the slowdown shouldn’t be seen as the start of a a big change from the central bank.

“A Fed pause is not the same as a pivot. While deteriorating economic and credit conditions may cause the Fed to pivot modestly at some point, a full pivot into dovish territory is highly unlikely. next year,” Goodwin said in a statement. Remark.

Goodwin pointed out that the first rate hikes should now start to show their impact on the broader economy, rather than just housing. However, the Fed will need several months of data to work its way through before changing course.

“At this point, with inflation as surprising as it has been before, the Fed will want to see clear signs of reversal in wage growth before pivoting. Recession should be seen as a base case scenario rather than ‘a risk,'” Goodwin said.

—Jesse Pound

CNBC Pro: Goldman’s Currie reveals ‘best’ hedge against inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical risks

Goldman’s Jeff Currie says there is an investment that can protect investors against rising interest rates, inflation and geopolitical risks.

Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said he had 20-30% upside potential in the near term, with additional upside risks to the price target.

CNBC Pro subscribers can learn more here.

—Ganesh Rao

European markets: here are the opening calls

European markets are eyeing a positive start to trading on Wednesday as investors brace for the latest monetary policy decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Many analysts expect the meeting to result in an interest rate hike of 75 basis points. Investors will also be watching the central bank’s statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for signs that the pace of tightening is slowing.

London’s FTSE index is expected to open 21 points higher at 7,115, Germany’s DAX 84 points at 13,422, France’s CAC 36 points at 6,364 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 119 points at 22,771, according to the data. of IG.

Earnings will come from Next, Aston Martin Lagonda, GSK, Metro and Maersk. German unemployment data for October will also be released.

—Holly Ellyatt

Zee Business Stock, Trading Guide: 10 things to know before the market opens on October 31, 2022 Sun, 30 Oct 2022 12:01:11 +0000

Zee Business Stock, Trading Guide: Indian markets oscillated in a range and ended up slightly, continuing the ongoing consolidation phase. The Nifty index opened slightly higher, but profit taking pared gains as the day progressed.

Most sectors ended lower, but strong traction from two heavyweights such as Reliance Industries and Maruti helped autos and energy close higher. While the broader indices underperformed and lost between 0.4 and 1%.

Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd, “We could see further consolidation in the index and expect a similar trend on the global front as well. After the recent outperformance, the banking sector could also blow a little and the major indices of other sectors should fill the gap.

Mishra advised market participants to stay focused on sector/stock selection and use dips to add when consolidating.

Here’s a list of things to watch on October 31, 2022

Technical outlook

Technically, the overall structure is bullish, but the momentum is slowing as the Nifty has several resistance levels between 17800 and 18100. On the downside, 17600-17400 is an area of ​​strong demand. The Nifty may remain volatile sideways with a positive bias. However, sector and stock-specific outperformances are likely to continue.

Banknifty is facing resistance in the 41500-42000 area while the 10-DMA around 40800 is immediate support. Below that, 40300–40000 will be the next support zone. On the upside, if it manages to break above the 42000 level, we can expect a move towards the 42500-43000 area.

– Pravesh Gour, Principal Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

Key support and resistance levels for Nifty50:

The Nifty50 closed up 0.28% at 17,786.8. Key pivot points (Fibonacci) support for the index is placed at 17739.13, 17711.94 and 17667.93 while resistance is placed at 17827.14, 17854.33 and 17898.34.

Key support and resistance levels for Nifty Bank:

Nifty Bank closed up 0.75% at 40,990.85. Key pivot points (Fibonacci) support for the index is placed at 40858.54, 40706.76 and 40461.1 while resistance is placed at 41349.86, 41501.63 and 41747.3.

Gross open interest:

Open Interest means the number of open or open contracts in NSE Futures at any given time. A seller and a buyer together create a contract.

Here, the gross values ​​of open interest positions taken by the four participants, i.e. Clients are Clients are individual retail investors who invest in derivatives, DIIs are domestic individual investors, FIIs are retail investors foreign institutional and Pro are the owners and brokerage firms that trade. in their own name.

Image source – Stockedge

Actions in the news:

Focus on sugar stocks: Government extends sugar export restrictions by one year until October 2023

IndiGo stock: the DGCA will carry out a detailed investigation to determine the cause, to take the appropriate measures on the stalling of the airline’s engine

Aurobindo Pharma Obtains ANDA Approval from US FDA for Rufinamide and Pyrimethamine

Zydus Lifesciences obtains final US FDA approval for acetaminophen injection.

Laurus Labs: US FDA issues Form 483 with 1 observation for Laurus Labs Parawada unit, observation is procedural in nature.

JSW Energy board approves raising up to Rs 2,500 cr via bonds.

Q2 benefits

Indian Oil Corporation Q2: Net loss at Rs 272.3 crore vs Rs 1,992 crore QoQ and revenue down 7.5% to Rs 2.1 lakh crore vs Rs 2.2 lakh Cr QoQ.

NTPC Q2: Autonomous net profit up 5.5% to Rs 3,331 crore from Rs 3,156.7 crore YoY and autonomous margin to 23.2% from 26.2% YoY.

JSW Energy Q2: Net profit up 37.3% to Rs 465.7 crore from Rs 339.2 crore YoY and revenue up 14.4% to Rs 2,387.5 crore from Rs 2,087.5 crore YoY .

CCL Products India reports Q2: Net profit up 17.1% to Rs 57.8 crore from Rs 49.3 crore YoY and revenue up 50.5% to Rs 506.6 crore from Rs 336.6 crore YoY .

Blue Dart Express reports Q2: Net profit up 3.4% to Rs 93.6 crore from Rs 90.6 crore YoY and revenue up 17.9% to Rs 1,325.3 crore from Rs 1,123.6 crore YoY.

Eveready reports Q2: Net profit down 52.6% to Rs 14.7 crore from Rs 31 crore YoY and revenue up 5.15% to Rs 375.8 crore from Rs 357.5 crore YoY.

FII activity on Friday:

Foreign portfolio investors (REITs) remained net sellers at Rs 613.37 crore in Indian markets while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 1,568.75 crore, according to preliminary data. on the NSE.

FII Index and F&O Stock:

Image source – Stockedge


GSS Infotech Limited: Raj Kumar has bought 1,00,000 shares of the company at a weighted average price of Rs 290 per share on the NSE, according to wholesale trading data.

Liberty Shoes Ltd: Rohan S Hegde has sold 1,29,234 shares of the company at a weighted average price of Rs 303.1 per share on the NSE, according to wholesale trading data.

Nandani Creation Limited: Anuj Mundra sold 55,000 shares of the company at a weighted average price of 81.58 rupees per share on the NSE, according to wholesale trading data.

Tourism Finance Corp: Rajasthan Global Securities Pvt Ltd has bought 7,65,086 shares of the company at a weighted average price of Rs 80.85 per share on the NSE, according to wholesale trading data.

Stocks under F&O ban on NSE

No stocks were placed under the F&O ban for Monday. Blackout securities in the F&O segment include companies in which the security has exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit.

Mediobanca open to talks on Banca Generali takeover if requested Thu, 27 Oct 2022 14:12:00 +0000

MILAN, Oct 27 (Reuters) – Italian Mediobanca (MDBI.MI) would consider buying a major wealth management asset such as Generali’s private bank if it is offered for sale and brings significant synergies, said its general manager on Thursday.

Chief Executive Alberto Nagel was speaking after the investment bank beat analysts’ expectations in the first quarter of its fiscal year, with higher interest rates and asset repricing driving double-digit net income growth of interests.

Last month, a source said insurer Generali (GASI.MI) may sell Banca Generali (BGN.MI) to Mediobanca to raise funds for a possible big deal in the US.

“We have a wait-and-see strategy. If we are contacted, we are willing to talk about it,” Nagel said on a conference call when asked about a possible interest in Banca Generali. “This applies to all assets,” he added, not just Banca Generali.

To expand Mediobanca’s wealth management business, Nagel considered in 2020 swapping the group’s 13% stake in Generali with Banca Generali. He also proposed a merger with Banca Mediolanum (BMED.MI), but none of these moves resulted in a deal.

Net profit for the quarter came in at 263 million euros ($264.2 million), above an analyst consensus provided by the bank of 230 million euros.

Net interest income (NII) increased by 10.6% to 396.3 million euros, pushing total income to record levels. The bank expects “significant” growth in the NII to continue in the coming quarters.

Mediobanca said it was on track to meet its 2023 business plan targets by the end of June, particularly in terms of earnings per share (EPS) growth and shareholder rewards.

($1 = 0.9956 euros)

Reporting by Gianluca Semeraro; edited by Agnieszka Flak and Keith Weir

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Grains Remain Hit in Trading Range Watching Harvest, Weather, News and Demand – Agweek Fri, 21 Oct 2022 10:33:27 +0000

Editor’s Note: Catch Randy Martinson every Friday after markets close on the Agweek Market Wrap at

It seems that the grains are influenced by two different factors. The fundamentals are trying to give some direction to the market, but the market macros continue to get in the way.

Cereals did not close the second week of October as expected. The week started with wheat posting strong gains while corn and soybeans posted modest gains. But then grains spent the rest of the week under pressure, at least wheat and corn. By the end of the week, wheat was posting modest losses while corn and soybeans were posting modest gains.

Part of the week’s guidance focused on the USDA’s October agricultural production report, which did not turn out as trade expected. Once again, the trade was going in one direction, while the USDA report was going in the opposite direction. Ultimately, the ratio was negative for wheat and corn (due to a greater than expected reduction in demand) but favorable for soybeans (due to reduced yields).

Once the report was released and the trade had a chance to integrate the numbers into the market, the grains resumed trading the current news. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to influence wheat and corn, while harvest pressure has slowed the recovery of corn as well as that of soybeans. But the balance tipped on the positive side for soybeans with strong export sales announcements at the end of the week. From Wednesday October 12 to Friday October 14, China and an unknown destination teamed up to purchase over 1.6 million metric tons of US soybeans.

On Thursday, October 13, a higher than expected consumer price index estimate put strong pressure on cereals. The CPI came in at 8.2% against expectations of 8.1%. The report sent the US Dollar sharply higher and the Dow Jones sharply lower, which in turn sent through to commodities. The higher inflation estimate combined with last week’s strong jobs report almost guarantees that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.75% at its November meeting, and likely in December as well. .

But surprisingly, the Dow Jones was able to bounce off the support and push towards the positive side. The Dow’s 1500-point reversal was able to ripple through the US Dollar as it reversed from 1 cent higher to nearly 1 cent lower. Grains benefited from the rally in external markets and also staged a rally with wheat pushing to double digit gains while corn posted a strong finish. Soybeans were higher for most of the second half of the session, but shed their gains to end flat.

Grains did not rally solely because of the reversal performance of the Dow Jones or the US Dollar. Reports that Russia will not extend the maritime transport agreement with Ukraine added support. There is approximately one month left in the export corridor before the end of the program. And with reports of a slowdown in inspections and a huge backlog of ships waiting to be inspected, it’s likely that no more boats will have the capacity to load.

The Drought Monitor map, released every Thursday, continues to show increasing drought in the western states as well as the plains. The majority of the US winter wheat crop is in some stage of drought. At this point, it seems unlikely that all of the planned area of ​​winter wheat will be planted (due to no or low soil moisture). Dry conditions also play a role in the northern Plains, as fall tillage or fertilizer applications will be difficult. The report also showed that 82% of the continental United States is in a drought stage, the highest percentage since the Drought Monitor began in 2000. No relief is in sight for the United States until the latest October week.

The third week of October started with cereals rallying to hold decent gains due to the escalating war between Ukraine and Russia. But the escalating fighting failed to capture traders’ attention as the market shed Monday’s gains.

Selling pressure came from improved weather forecasts that call for drier weather for Brazil later in the week and rain for the southern plains of the United States at the weekend.

A negative crop progress report added to the sale. For the second week in a row, the progress report showed better than expected crop development stages for soybeans, but not as much for corn. As of October 16, the maize harvest was estimated to be 45% complete against 40% on average (1% below expectations). The corn crop condition rating dropped from 1% to 53% good/excellent (1% lower than expected). The only states showing declining conditions were North Dakota (-1%) and Ohio (-3%).

The soybean harvest was estimated at 63% complete against 52% on average (3% above expectations). The soybean crop condition rating remained unchanged at 57% good/excellent (as expected). The only states showing declining conditions were Indiana (-1%) and Ohio (-4%). Most states remained unchanged for the week.

Winter wheat planting progress exceeded its average pace last week with 69% of the crop now planted vs. 68% on average (1% above expectations). Emergence, however, continues to be slow due to dry conditions. By October 16, 38% of the winter wheat crop had emerged compared to an average of 44%.

The National Oilseed Processors Association’s crush estimate for September was disappointing, coming in at 158.11 million bushels against expectations of 161.63 million bushels. The drop in the crush estimate was slightly offset by the friendly stocks estimate which put bean oil stocks at 1.459 billion pounds against expectations of 1.511 billion pounds.

Harvest pressure and improved weather forecasts (rain in the United States, drought in Brazil) will put pressure on cereals in the short term. November options expire on Friday, October 21, which will add further volatility to the grain as traders search for the strike price of the option that has the most open interest.

Grains appear to be settled into the trading range and so far the news has not been enough to lift Grains out of this pattern. Stocks are tight, so traders are reluctant to break through the low end of the trading range to avoid unwanted demand. On the other hand, we still need demand to control inventory as traders also seem reluctant to break above the high end of the range as traders seem to be waiting for more confirmation on production.

Minneapolis December wheat trading range appears to be $9.30 to $10.15, Chicago December wheat $8.20 to $9.50, Kansas City December wheat $9.25 to $10.35, December corn $6.50 to $7.05 and November soybeans $13.50 to $14.50.

Separately, Russian officials met with the United Nations and Turkey on the renewal of the safe shipping corridor. At this point, Russia would accept an extension of the agreement, but it would require the acceptance of more concessions and the fulfillment of the concessions of the previous agreement before Russia would sign. Most of the new concessions are not known at this time, but one is to ease sanctions on Russia so it can freely sell and ship crude oil and fertilizers.

Argentinian officials lowered their estimate of wheat production from 500,000 metric tons to 16 million metric tons. To add to that, 50% of Argentina’s wheat acres are also in a drought stage.

Australia is experiencing heavy rains which are beginning to cause quality issues with its wheat crop. Wet conditions are also rampant in the south-central region of Brazil. Their wheat crop is also reportedly affected by heavy rains as well as delays in soybean plantings.

China also made the news this week. President Xi Jinping has asked all Chinese citizens to leave Ukraine immediately due to the possibility of nuclear fallout. Xi also made the comment at the opening of the CCP that China has gained full control of Hong Kong and Taiwan is next.

Livestock markets closed the second week of October mixed with live cattle posting gains in the first October contract due to strong spot trading, but with losses in the forward contracts. Feeder cattle suffered losses at all levels. USDA’s October beef production estimate also limited gains due to a 130 million pound increase in beef production, bringing 2022 production to 28.136 billion pounds. The USDA also increased first-quarter 2023 production by 10 million pounds and second-quarter production by 70 million pounds, but total 2023 beef production saw only a 30 million-pound increase for reach 26.365 billion pounds. The USDA also reduced imports and increased exports.

Cattle were able to shake off the negative production estimate and stage a slight recovery to start the third week of October. Cattle are oversold and in need of a technical correction, but it appears traders are more focused on macro concerns. Especially with expectations of the Fed raising interest rates by 0.75% in early November and likely again in mid-December. But technical buying, squared position ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report and firm spot trade (as well as a lower grain market) all came together to help give cattle a boost.

“The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader should consider whether it is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical testing of strategies, are not indicative of future results.

Oil drops as Biden’s emergency crude release eases supply fears Tue, 18 Oct 2022 18:13:51 +0000

(Bloomberg) – Oil fell as the prospect of additional supplies from strategic reserves eased market concerns about a tight market as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere.

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West Texas Intermediate futures fell nearly 4% to trade below $83 a barrel on Tuesday. The United States is preparing to release more crude from its strategic reserve to lower fuel prices. Crude pared some losses after learning Mexico had completed its 2023 hedging program that helps protect earnings if prices fall below $68.70.

“Crude prices have fallen as energy traders expect the Biden administration to remain aggressive with further releases from its strategic oil reserves,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at the brokerage and data provider Oanda Corp. “With less than a month to go until the midterm elections, President Biden wants energy prices to move in the right direction.

October’s choppy crude trading saw the market caught between two divergent factors. Key indicators of market strength, known as timing gaps, signal tension before OPEC+ production cuts begin next month, but downside factors such as weak Chinese demand and the aggressive monetary policy of central banks continue to weigh on the market. European Union sanctions against Russia are also looming, and some Indian refiners are halting spot purchases of the country’s crude ahead of that deadline.

Prices have fallen by about a third since early June, wiping out any gains made after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. EU sanctions on Moscow’s oil trade are set to come into effect from December, prompting traders and refiners to set aside storage tanks in anticipation of a supply shortage.

Despite range-bound trading, open interest in the global benchmark Brent is steadily increasing. Holdings hit their highest level since March in the most recent data, although they remain well below where they were before the war in Ukraine triggered huge price volatility and crushed trading volumes . Holdings of WTI continued to tumble.

The United States is moving towards releasing an additional 10 to 15 million barrels of oil from the country’s emergency stockpile, according to people familiar with the matter. Separately, the Biden administration is still weighing limits on fuel exports, two of the people said.

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