Daily Market Wire November 9, 2021


Most futures have eased further. Soybeans, French wheat and rapeseed at 1%.

  • December contract for Chicago wheat up 1.5 cents per bushel to 768 cents per bushel;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 2c / bu to 780.75c / bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat in December down 0.75c / bu to 1008.75c / bu;
  • December wheat contract MATIF down € 4 / t to € 283.75 / t;
  • December contract for corn down 1.5 c / bu to 551.5 c / bu;
  • Soybean contract for January down 17c / bu to 1188.5c / bu;
  • Winnipeg canola contract in March 2022 up C $ 2.20 / t to $ 954.60 / t;
  • MATIF rapeseed contract February 2022, down from € 6.50 / t to € 678.50 / t;
  • The US dollar index fell from 0.2 to 94.1;
  • AUD firmer at US $ 0.742;
  • CAD unchanged at $ 1,245;
  • EUR firmer at $ 1,159;
  • ASX January 2022 wheat up by A $ 5 / t to $ 357 / t;
  • ASX January 2023 wheat up $ 1.50 / t to $ 369 / t.

International

It was a relatively calm night in agricultural futures markets with many contracts closing virtually unchanged ahead of tonight’s USDA report. Chicago wheat managed to gain 1.5usc.bu, Kansas wheat added 2usc / bu while Minni lost 0.75usc.bu. One of the biggest drivers of the day was Matif wheat which lost 4 USD / mt, while Black Sea wheat remained unchanged. CME corn fell 1.5 usc / bu while Dalian (China) corn rose CNY $ 18 / mt – this puts Chinese corn just under 12% higher than September lows – a crucial factor in the global maize balance. US soybeans fell 17 usc / bu, printing lows not seen since the end of 2020. Meal fell 1.2 USD / st while bean oil fell 0.76 usc / lb. Winnipeg canola rose C $ 2.20 / t while Matif canola fell EUR $ 6.50 / t

According to a Bloomberg poll, the average analyst will look for a slight reduction in global wheat stocks to 276.9 million tonnes (Mt). In its October report, WASDE forecast a closing stock at 277.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 6 million tonnes from the previous month.

The Fed Reserve has signaled the dangers of investing in risky assets, indicating that while this asset class may continue to recover, there is an increased risk of a significant correction.

Positioning vs. fundamentals. While this isn’t a new story, it won’t be the last time that the speculator has suddenly crammed into a fundamentally supported market. It is understandable that the market sees the wheat story as real, and it can be argued that we have yet to resolve anything regarding rationing the prices of demand for scarce wheat. Bulls, however, need to be fed and structurally, when the primary owner wants out, values ​​will be impacted.

Global fertilizer prices continue to strengthen and find buyers. Middle East futures have climbed to US $ 900 / tfob this week, from below $ 300 / tn a year ago.

The report on the state of crops in the United States last night saw;

Maize harvested 84pc, compared to 74pc last week and 78pc on average

Soybeans harvested 87 pc, against 79 pc last week and an average of 88 pc

Sorghum harvested 86 pc, against 80 pc last week and an average of 80 pc

91pc of winter wheat sown, compared to 87pc last week and 91pc on average

The condition of winter wheat is rated at 45% good to excellent, compared to 45% last week and 45% last year.

Australia

Cash offers from east coast growers were relatively unchanged yesterday amid little harvest action. The delayed lane and delivered bids were all a bit stronger, wheat and barley $ 2 / t. Canola offers fell further by an average of $ 5 / t in WA, SA, Vic and NSW. We started to see offers in Victorian markets delivered for quick delivery.

The latest reception data from bulk handlers show a high harvest rate in WA with a CBH exceeding 2Mt, the GrainCorp network before the rain 2.28Mt. Harvesting began in the southern region of New South Wales when the Wyalong and Griffith bunches made their first loads. The first barley deliveries were also received in Victoria with 820 t delivered in the Piangil area.

Weather and quality streaming effects remain the hot topic in this market, and limited and continued trading activity is envisioned until we get more clarity when the headers start rolling again.

Despite a large stock of take-out wheat in NSW comprising mainly protein wheat, the question remains whether, in the event that we see wet conditions degrading quality, there is sufficient stock to satisfy the local milling market as well. as export markets. This also led the ASX Eastern wheat futures contract to rise by A $ 30 / t since the end of October. The open interest in this contract currently exceeds 500,000 t.

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