The Rupee is expected to depreciate on a strong Dollar, risk aversion in the markets, the USDINR pair is trading in this range

The Rupee is expected to depreciate today amid a strong Dollar and risk aversion in global markets. “Risk assets are struggling to maintain momentum as the U.S. Fed prepares to aggressively tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates several times this year and unwinding its balance sheet. In addition, investors will remain cautious ahead of manufacturing data from major countries in the world. The US Dollar INR (April) is expected to trade in a range of 76.10-76.50,” ICICI Direct said. In the previous session, the local unit appreciated 15 paise against the US dollar amid greenback weakness overseas and a rally in domestic equities.

Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President – Commodities and Currency Research, Religare Broking

“The Indian Rupee managed to post gains for the second consecutive session, while finding support at the key 76.70 mark, amid the easing in the Dollar Index and renewed buying seen across the board. domestic equities Risk sentiments improved as the greenback retreated from the recent two-year peak tested earlier this week Markets now expect the ECB to start raising rates as soon as the start of the third quarter, with inflation reaching record levels in the EU.

“However, the overall macroeconomic landscape suggests there is a lot of jitters in the market due to geopolitical risks, accelerating inflation and the prospect of an EU ban on crude oil imports. which is likely to keep the Indian rupee under pressure.In addition, increasingly hawkish statements from Fed officials are raising concerns about higher interest rates in the year ahead. From the momentum, we expect the Indian Rupee to hover in the range of 75.80-76.70 in the near term.

Praveen Singh, AVP – Fundamental Currency and Commodities Analyst

“The Indian rupee strengthened today amid risk on sentiment. The decline in the dollar index amid talk of the likely ECB rate hike in July is supporting the national currency. However, the crisis in Eastern Europe and the overall hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve will keep the rupee’s gains capped.The short-term range is Rs 75.75 to Rs 76.50.

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex and Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“The rupiah rose against the US dollar on gains in domestic equities, but market participants remained cautious ahead of the Fed Chairman’s keynote speech which was scheduled for yesterday. next day, the dollar index off its intraday lows after the Fed Chairman more or less confirmed about half a percentage point at the next policy meeting.On the other hand, the euro slipped from its week-long highs after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the ECB may have to further cut its growth outlook as the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine weighs on households and Today the focus will be on the preliminary US, UK and EU manufacturing PMI figure, and better than expected economic data could extend the greenback’s gains. forecast Let’s assume the USDINR (Spot) will trade with a positive bias and quote in the range of 76.05 and 76.50.

Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors

“The Indian Rupee is expected to open around 76.25 and trade in the 76.10-50 range. Domestic equities were seen rallying for the second day in a row yesterday, but FII remained a sharp seller and in total they sold over Rs. 15,000 stocks and bonds in April Other fundamentals are dark and bleak for the Rupee, but the war chest of RBI reserves has been a key point to consider for a steady move. Overall, the pair is likely to trade in a consolidation phase from 75.70 to 76.70 with a mixed bias.

Anindya Banerjee, Vice President, Currency and Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities

“USDINR is now happy to oblige option sellers. The huge open interest in options with strike prices between 76.00 and 76.75 indicates that until the April expiration, USDINR may remain in this range. However, we must be alert to any external risk. As any large deviation or movement outside this range, mostly upwards, can trigger more futures buying from call sellers. For now, we would continue to favor credit strategies to bet on the range. Even for upside bets, we used the call spread ratio credit strategy using the May options. This gives us flexibility, which is essential in the current situation.

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